Illusion of skill

What it is

Mistaking luck for skill, especially where outcomes are largely random, such as stock picking.

Related

• Outcome bias bias
  Judging by results credits luck as skill.
• Dunning-Kruger effect bias
  A little knowledge, or a lucky run, is mistaken for real skill.
• Hot-hand fallacy fallacy
  Seeing skill in a run of success mistakes luck for talent.
• Illusion of control bias
  Both over-credit ourselves for what is largely chance.
• Beginner's luck bias
  Early luck is mistaken for talent.

Appears in

• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly#94: Illusion of skill

References

• Wikipedia: Illusion of skill en.wikipedia.org
• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly en.wikipedia.org
• Wikipedia: List of cognitive biases en.wikipedia.org
• Wikipedia: Cognitive bias codex en.wikipedia.org

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