What it is
Early success in a risky field is mostly chance, yet it can encourage overconfidence and more risk.
Example A novice investor's first lucky year leads to a much bigger bet.
Related
References
- Wikipedia: Beginner's luck en.wikipedia.org
- The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly en.wikipedia.org
- Wikipedia: List of cognitive biases en.wikipedia.org
- Wikipedia: Cognitive bias codex en.wikipedia.org
More in “Deciding and acting: incentives, loss and commitment”
Overconfidence effectLoss aversionSunk-cost fallacyCognitive dissonanceMotivated reasoningIncentive super-response tendencyStatus quo biasEndowment effectOptimism biasPlanning fallacyOutcome biasHyperbolic discountingScarcity errorAffect heuristicAction biasOmission biasDefault effectFear of regretAmbiguity aversionParadox of choiceDecision fatigueProcrastinationHedonic treadmillMental accountingEffort justificationIllusion of controlHouse-money effectWinner's curseMotivation crowdingNeomaniaNot-invented-here syndromeInability to close doorsOverthinkingStrategic misrepresentationDéformation professionnelleZeigarnik effectIllusion of skillDomain dependenceSleeper effect"Get worse before it gets better" fallacyVolunteer's folly