Gambler's fallacy

What it is

Believes that past random outcomes change the odds of the next one ("it's due"). Independent events have no memory.

Related

• Representativeness heuristic bias
  We expect short random sequences to look "random", so a streak seems to demand a correction.
• Hot-hand fallacy fallacy
  These are opposite beliefs about streaks in independent events: the gambler expects a reversal, the hot hand expects a continuation.
• Illusion of control bias
  Believing we can predict or influence a random outcome is the same temptation that makes the gambler's fallacy feel reasonable.

Appears in

• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly#29: Gambler's fallacy

References

• Wikipedia: Gambler's fallacy en.wikipedia.org
• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly en.wikipedia.org
• Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy: Fallacies iep.utm.edu
• Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy: Fallacies plato.stanford.edu
• Wikipedia: List of fallacies en.wikipedia.org
• Purdue OWL: Logical fallacies owl.purdue.edu

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