Regression to the mean

What it is

Extreme results tend to be followed by more ordinary ones, and we invent causes for this natural drift.

Related

• Post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy
  An extreme result followed by a normal one invites a causal story about what we did in between, when it was only chance.
• Outcome bias bias
  Praising or blaming a decision for what was partly a swing of luck confuses result and quality.

Appears in

• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly#19: Regression to mean

References

• Wikipedia: Regression to the mean en.wikipedia.org
• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly en.wikipedia.org
• Wikipedia: List of cognitive biases en.wikipedia.org
• Wikipedia: Cognitive bias codex en.wikipedia.org

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