Forecast illusion

What it is

Trusting precise predictions about complex systems (economies, markets, elections) far more than their track record deserves.

Related

• Overconfidence effect bias
  Precise forecasts reflect confidence rather than accuracy.
• Planning fallacy bias
  A forecast about our own project is the planning fallacy.
• Exponential growth bias bias
  Linear thinking about compounding quantities produces forecasts that are far too low or too high.
• Problem of induction bias
  Projecting the past forward is the basis of forecasts, which is exactly where induction fails.

Appears in

• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly#40: Forecast illusion

References

• Wikipedia: Forecast illusion en.wikipedia.org
• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly en.wikipedia.org
• Wikipedia: List of cognitive biases en.wikipedia.org
• Wikipedia: Cognitive bias codex en.wikipedia.org

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