Black swan events

What it is

Rare, high-impact events that nobody expected are explained away afterwards as if they had been predictable.

Related

• Hindsight bias bias
  After a rare event, hindsight makes it look predictable.
• Overconfidence effect bias
  Tight forecasts leave no room for the rare large surprise.
• Problem of induction bias
  Black swans are the events that the problem of induction warns us about.

Appears in

• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly#75: The black swan

References

• Wikipedia: Black swan events en.wikipedia.org
• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly en.wikipedia.org
• Wikipedia: List of cognitive biases en.wikipedia.org
• Wikipedia: Cognitive bias codex en.wikipedia.org

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