Problem of induction

What it is

Past regularities do not guarantee future ones. The turkey, fed daily, concludes it will always be fed, until the day it is not.

Related

• Black swan events bias
  Black swans are the events that the problem of induction warns us about.
• Forecast illusion bias
  Projecting the past forward is the basis of forecasts, which is exactly where induction fails.

Appears in

• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly#31: Induction

References

• Wikipedia: Problem of induction en.wikipedia.org
• The 99 thinking errors in Rolf Dobelli's The Art of Thinking Clearly en.wikipedia.org
• Wikipedia: List of cognitive biases en.wikipedia.org
• Wikipedia: Cognitive bias codex en.wikipedia.org

More in “Numbers, probability and prediction”